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Official Journal of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS)

Table 3 Nowcast values for \(M_{\lambda } \ge 6.5\) earthquakes as on November 21, 2020 in the Sulawesi area with \(M_{\sigma } = 4.5{\text{ and }}R = 300{\text{ km}}\)

From: Nowcasting earthquakes in Sulawesi Island, Indonesia

City City center Date of last large event Magnitude of last large event Current small event count EPS (%), with 90% CI
Lat (°N) Long (°E)
Bau-Bau − 5.5071 122.5969 2/19/2005 6.5 100 41 (36–47)
Bitung 1.4404 125.1217 11/14/2019 7.1 229 70 (64–77)
Bone − 4.7443 120.0665 2/19/2005 6.5 113 44 (39–51)
Buton − 5.3096 122.9888 2/19/2005 6.5 96 39 (35–46)
Donggala − 0.4233 119.8352 9/28/2018 7.5 189 63 (57–70)
Gorontalo 0.6999 122.4467 4/12/2019 7.0 128 49 (43–55)
Kendari − 3.9985 122.5130 4/12/2019 7.0 60 27 (23–32)
Kolaka − 3.9947 121.5827 4/12/2019 7.0 69 30 (26–35)
Luwuk − 0.9388 122.7928 4/12/2019 7.0 157 56 (50–63)
Makassar − 5.1477 119.4327 2/23/1969 6.9 140 52 (46–59)
Mamuju − 2.4920 119.3250 9/28/2018 7.5 165 58 (52–65)
Manado 1.4748 124.8421 11/14/2019 7.1 232 70 (64–77)
Morowali − 2.6987 121.9018 4/12/2019 7.0 88 37 (32–43)
Palopo − 3.0016 120.1985 4/12/2019 7.0 80 34 (30–40)
Palu − 0.8679 119.9047 9/28/2018 7.5 186 62 (56–69)
Pare-pare − 4.0096 119.6291 2/23/1969 6.9 329 82 (77–88)
Polewali − 3.4155 119.3367 5/29/2017 6.6 180 61 (55–68)
Poso − 1.3950 120.7538 4/12/2019 7.0 106 42 (37–49)
Taliabu − 1.8268 124.7741 4/12/2019 7.0 152 55 (49–62)
Toli-toli 0.8768 120.7580 9/28/2018 7.5 165 58 (52–65)
Watampone − 4.5388 120.3250 2/19/2005 6.5 155 55 (50–62)
  1. These EPS scores represent the current level of seismic progression of each city region in its cycle of large earthquakes. However, as mentioned before, due to the stationary Poisson process in Sulawesi, these EPS scores do not have any relevance to the associated seismic risk in the study region