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Official Journal of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS)

Table 3 Nowcast values for \(M_{\lambda } \ge 6.5\) earthquakes as on November 21, 2020 in the Sulawesi area with \(M_{\sigma } = 4.5{\text{ and }}R = 300{\text{ km}}\)

From: Nowcasting earthquakes in Sulawesi Island, Indonesia

City

City center

Date of last large event

Magnitude of last large event

Current small event count

EPS (%), with 90% CI

Lat (°N)

Long (°E)

Bau-Bau

− 5.5071

122.5969

2/19/2005

6.5

100

41 (36–47)

Bitung

1.4404

125.1217

11/14/2019

7.1

229

70 (64–77)

Bone

− 4.7443

120.0665

2/19/2005

6.5

113

44 (39–51)

Buton

− 5.3096

122.9888

2/19/2005

6.5

96

39 (35–46)

Donggala

− 0.4233

119.8352

9/28/2018

7.5

189

63 (57–70)

Gorontalo

0.6999

122.4467

4/12/2019

7.0

128

49 (43–55)

Kendari

− 3.9985

122.5130

4/12/2019

7.0

60

27 (23–32)

Kolaka

− 3.9947

121.5827

4/12/2019

7.0

69

30 (26–35)

Luwuk

− 0.9388

122.7928

4/12/2019

7.0

157

56 (50–63)

Makassar

− 5.1477

119.4327

2/23/1969

6.9

140

52 (46–59)

Mamuju

− 2.4920

119.3250

9/28/2018

7.5

165

58 (52–65)

Manado

1.4748

124.8421

11/14/2019

7.1

232

70 (64–77)

Morowali

− 2.6987

121.9018

4/12/2019

7.0

88

37 (32–43)

Palopo

− 3.0016

120.1985

4/12/2019

7.0

80

34 (30–40)

Palu

− 0.8679

119.9047

9/28/2018

7.5

186

62 (56–69)

Pare-pare

− 4.0096

119.6291

2/23/1969

6.9

329

82 (77–88)

Polewali

− 3.4155

119.3367

5/29/2017

6.6

180

61 (55–68)

Poso

− 1.3950

120.7538

4/12/2019

7.0

106

42 (37–49)

Taliabu

− 1.8268

124.7741

4/12/2019

7.0

152

55 (49–62)

Toli-toli

0.8768

120.7580

9/28/2018

7.5

165

58 (52–65)

Watampone

− 4.5388

120.3250

2/19/2005

6.5

155

55 (50–62)

  1. These EPS scores represent the current level of seismic progression of each city region in its cycle of large earthquakes. However, as mentioned before, due to the stationary Poisson process in Sulawesi, these EPS scores do not have any relevance to the associated seismic risk in the study region