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Official Journal of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS)

Table 1. 17 CMIP5 models and 23 CMIP6 models that produce reasonable nonlinearity (half of the observed) between PC1 and PC2

From: Two-year consecutive concurrences of positive Indian Ocean Dipole and Central Pacific El Niño preconditioned the 2019/2020 Australian “black summer” bushfires

CMIP5

α

CMIP6

α

FIO-ESM

− 0.5155

CAMS-CSM1-0

− 0.2902

GISS-E2-R

− 0.1995

FGOALS-f3-L

− 0.5547

bcc-csm1-1-m

− 0.2518

FGOALS-g3

− 0.3096

CCSM4

− 0.3245

CMCC-CM2-SR5

− 0.4055

CESM1-BGC

− 0.1776

CNRM-CM6-1

− 0.1662

CESM1-CAM5

− 0.3953

CNRM-ESM2-1

− 0.1687

CMCC-CESM

− 0.2502

EC-Earth3

− 0.2662

CMCC-CM

− 0.1872

EC-Earth3-Veg

− 0.2665

CMCC-CMS

− 0.3155

FIO-ESM-2–0

− 0.3751

CNRM-CM5

− 0.1738

MIROC6

− 0.3198

FGOALS-s2

− 0.2142

MIROC-ES2L

− 0.3466

GFDL-CM3

− 0.2931

HadGEM3-GC31-LL

− 0.1785

GFDL-ESM2M

− 0.3882

MPI-ESM1-2-h

− 0.2660

GISS-E2-H

− 0.1789

MPI-ESM1-2-LR

− 0.2338

IPSL-CM5B-LR

− 0.2594

MRI-ESM2-0

− 0.3387

MIROC5

− 0.3605

GISS-E2-1-G

− 0.3644

MRI-CGCM3

− 0.1583

CESM2

− 0.3216

  

CESM2-WACCM

− 0.2436

  

NorESM2-LM

− 0.2505

  

NorESM2-MM

− 0.2077

  

GFDL-ESM4

− 0.1931

  

CIESM

− 0.1886

  

MCM-UA-1-0

− 0.2888

  1. Here we use α to indicate the strength of the nonlinear relationship as in PC2(t) = α PC1(t)2. (see Data session; see also Cai et al. 2018). The observed α based on multi-products as in Cai et al. (2018) is -0.31. The more negative in α, the higher nonlinearity in the ENSO system